Fueling Power and Influence: Energy Competition in the Indo-Pacific
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Summary
The Indo-Pacific is an emerging region in energy geopolitics where India and China remain key players. China has leverage in the form of BRI and renewables, while India has developed close alliances and maritime links to counter the growing Chinese web in the region.
With the advent of the 21st century, the world shifting from traditional energy security, which revolved around securing oil and gas supply, to a more sophisticated modern energy security that focuses on the use of technology, diversified supply chains and the procurement of resources through maritime routes, infrastructure connectivity, and renewable energy. Even though in the near future oil will remain a crucial factor, the renewable will be the future.
In this regard Indo-Pacific is becoming the ground for conflict and cooperation as it sits as the most critical transit route. In order to secure long-term energy resilience and geopolitical influence, both India and China are deploying energy diplomacy, which reflects competition over connectivity, infrastructure, and technological leadership.
China's Expanding Energy Diplomacy
Today China is one of the largest energy consumers in the world. In order to ensure an uninterrupted energy supply, China has taken multiple initiatives, of which the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remains crucial. The BRI is not only an economic initiative, but a geopolitical move to diversify Beijing's trade routes and alleviate the 'Malacca dilemma'. Under this project China has invested in large scale construction of ports, pipelines, industrial corridors and maritime lines such as Gwadar Port in Pakistan, and Hambantota in Sri Lanka.
In order to mitigate the manufacturing hurdles at home, China is setting up its manufacturing units in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia. The advantages include getting an unsanctioned energy supply, and building a resilient distribution network by bypassing the US sanctions.
Another ambitious diversifying strategy of Beijing has been its tremendous growth in building renewable energy manufacturing. Companies such as LONGi, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, CATL, and BYD now control substantial portions of global solar-panel, battery, and electric-vehicle supply chains. As the world is moving towards a transition in the energy sector to use clean energy, China is strategically securing its stronghold to avoid any future disruptions and managing the energy diplomacy in its favour.
India's Strategic Response and Renewable-Energy Diplomacy
The growing Chinese web around the Indian Ocean is a challenge for India. New Delhi's counter to Chinese BRI can be compared to the strategy of 'necklace of diamonds', a strategic encirclement of China by focusing on developing maritime and naval relationships. India's shift from SAGAR to MAHASAGAR shows New Delhi's priority in maritime cooperation and security.
India is quietly countering China through a coalition-building approach in the promotion of clean energy. For instance, the International Solar Alliance (ISA), a joint effort of India and France, has become the largest clean energy alliance with 120 signatories in it. Domestically, India is employing schemes for the promotion of solar energy through schemes like the Rooftop Solar, PM-KUSUM, National Solar Mission, and Green Hydrogen Mission. Private players like Waree Solar, Vikram Solar, Tata, and Reliance industries are building huge manufacturing bases under the EPC model. India's target of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 reflects not only climate commitments but also a strategic attempt to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and counter the growing Chinese dominance in renewable markets.
Indo-Pacific and its Centrality to the Future Energy Security Politics
Energy demand will never become obsolete as it drives and thrives human existence. In the contemporary era Indo-Pacific has become central to it due to the presence of important maritime routes like Strait of Malacca, Strait of Hormuz and the South China Sea. Thus, securing the region and avoiding confrontation in the open waters is in the interest for both India and China.
With the emerging global warming and rising sea levels, investment in clean energy transition and disaster-resilient infrastructure is a must to secure clean energy. Thus, future geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific will increasingly depend on the ability of states to provide climate finance, green technologies, and resilient infrastructure. Thus, it is plausible that energy diplomacy will not be limited to controlling the resources. It will rather focus on a strong connectivity network of energy transition from non-renewables to clean energy. The global energy balance can only be maintained through regional co-operation and beneficial alliances.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Statecraft Institute.