The Hormuz Calculus Behind India’s Gulf Shield

Summary

PM Modi’s brief Abu Dhabi visit underscores India’s deepening strategic ties with the UAE amid Hormuz tensions. Beyond booming trade and oil pacts, it signals growing security cooperation, maritime awareness, and multi-alignment to shield India’s energy lifelines in a volatile Gulf.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stopover in Abu Dhabi was a brief affair, amounting to a matter of few diplomatic heartbeats. Handshake at the airport, drive around in the pristine geometry of the city-state of Emiratis, meeting room filled with flags and calculated grins. But in the harsh calculus of geopolitics, PM Modi’s brief sojourn in the United Arab Emirates had greater significance than a whole lot of grand state visits bedecked with ceremonial fanfare. History is good at masking such important events behind mundane time-tables.

The New Middle East: Geography, Power, and Conflict

Today’s Middle East is like one of those imperial frontiers of yesteryear, bristling with ambition and beset by insecurity, while always open to the impact of the clash between economics and power. Gulf is no longer only an exchange centre for oil. Rather, it has turned into a place where the clash of trade routes, drones, missiles, computers and sea deployments are taking place. The Strait of Hormuz has once again served as a reminder to the world that geography is a tyrant that has never been subjugated by any great power. The activities carried out by Iranians near Hormuz, the missile attacks on the Emirati-linked installations, and the systematic process of militarisation of the strait proves that the mistaken belief in the creation of stability by globalisation is equally irrelevant. Stability is not the outcome of globalisation; rather, business flourishes in its current form because it is backed by hard power.

For India, the situation becomes fairly simple. India is one such country that is dependent upon external forces and vulnerable to their shocks. Any shock that arises in West Asia invariably impacts the Indian family, industry, fuel tanks and balance sheets. The Indian government understands this very well. Nowadays, UAE has transformed from being just a country providing oil and jobs to becoming a key position holder in a region that is moving towards controlled chaos. This is also one reason why Modi managed to squeeze UAE into his Europe tour at the very last minute. It was more than diplomacy. It was geopolitics taking care of its own.

The relationship that existed between India and the UAE was that of the past. The oil tankers sailed eastwards, and the money flowed in the opposite direction with both governments ensuring that the process remained smooth, devoid of any emotional attachment. This was expected because of the convenience of the bureaucracies. However, the recent years have altered the equation. Economics grew to embrace strategy, and strategy expanded to security. In today’s world, the alliance has grown to embrace many different aspects of business in the way a rising power makes plans for itself. The statistics speak for themselves. Two-way trade has broken the USD 100 billion barrier. Non-oil trade has rocketed at an incredible pace following the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in 2022. Reaching the goal of USD 200 billion by 2032 will not be mere wishful thinking, it will be a necessity.

However, lurking beneath this economic jargon lies a more cold-hearted strategic rationale. In today’s world, every great power is learning an important lesson that supply chains are irrelevant if seaways can be strangulated. The recent blockade crisis in the Gulf of Hormuz was the perfect illustration of this vulnerability. India came to realise that even with diversified sources of oil, one bottleneck could cut off the lifeline of Asia’s industry.

It is thus important to note the relevance of the pacts signed in Abu Dhabi. While the promise of storing 30 million barrels of crude oil in India’s strategic petroleum reserve facilities was a business calculation, it was also an act of geopolitical caution. So were the agreements on LPG supplies. Similarly, initiatives such as the creation of infrastructure for ship repair facilities at Vadinar were acts of geopolitical insurance.

It is not through dramatic moves that great powers are able to ensure their survival, but rather through building up robust systems around themselves based on their weakness. And although much is talked about the rise of India, the country is highly vulnerable to threats from abroad. Security cooperation thus comes from being an afterthought to becoming central to India-UAE relations. Former interactions of defence were focused on pleasantries and anti-terrorism cooperation. Currently, the conversations have shifted into operational jargon with terms such as interoperability, maritime domain awareness, cyber security cooperation, special forces, strategic basing and intelligence integration coming up. The idea of the Strategic Defence Partnership agreement represents a bold institutional move. India is no longer content with just being seen as a recipient of security in the Gulf region.

On the other hand, the Americans continue to get caught up in their own paradoxical policy approaches. Each and every American president promises less American intervention in the Middle East. But each and every crisis pulls the United States into the region by the neck. The Chinese are increasing their influence via slow economic penetration. The Russians survive through gradual exhaustion. All regional states are preparing themselves to fight extended battles rather than quick wins. In such a complicated milieu, the middle powers are trying something hard but essential: strategic autonomy without strategic isolation.

Symbolism, Multi-Alignment and the Road Ahead

This explains why the symbolism of Modi’s trip was just as significant as the accords themselves. On one hand, India denounced attacks against the UAE, while maintaining ties with Iran at the same time. New Delhi practices multi-alignment through West Asia using pragmatism. This might well have been referred to as balance of power politics in a different era. Now it comes with a more benign label.

History tends to unfold through misjudgement wrapped in self-assurance. Today’s Gulf region has many players who believe they can manage escalation. This rarely works out well. Against this background, the relationship between India and UAE is emerging as an important venture as a bulwark against chaos.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Statecraft Institute.