Deterrence

With New START lapsed, a post-treaty framework will have to accommodate China as a third nuclear superpower. Using 2026 force data and exchange simulations, this Issue Brief finds that all three powers could hold assured retaliation within New START-style ceilings — and that missile defences would have to be near-perfect to change that conclusion.

This commentary argues that contemporary conflicts increasingly combine intra-state and international dimensions, posing challenges to traditional conflict resolution strategies. It proposes an analysis of theories of International Relations and Conflict Resolution as well as the adoption of realistic policies that include deterrence, adaptive monitoring, regional cooperation and local peacebuilding efforts.